REFLECTIONS ON JUDGEMENT AT WORK - MAKING BETTER CHOICES

Interview with Sir Andrew Likierman

What inspired your focus on the development and use of judgment as a key factor in leadership and management?

Having worked in industry and commerce, in professions and in the public and not-for-profit sectors as well as in academic life, it has been clear to me how important the quality of judgment is. Indeed, it is one of the most important qualities that a leader in any field needs to have.

People assume that they are either born with judgment or without it. I believe that everyone can improve their judgment, regardless of whether they have particular personal qualities or not. My work is about how to do so.

How would you define good judgment?

The combination of personal qualities with relevant knowledge and experience to form opinions and make decisions.

How can we improve our judgment in everyday decisions?

The first step is to understand that judgment is a process and that we can improve it in ourselves and others. The process I suggest is to incorporate 6 elements into the judgment – Our knowledge and experience, our trust in people and information, our awareness of what is happening when we make the judgment, our feelings and beliefs, the way we make a choice and (for decisions) our ability to deliver what we have chosen.

Taking each of these in turn, improving our own judgment means:

Understanding the relevance of our experience and knowledge to the judgment we are about to make.
Being aware when listening, seeing and reading so that we have a good understanding of what is going into the judgment.
Ensuring that who and what we trust is based on reliable evidence about our sources.
Understanding the feelings and beliefs, including our biases, emotions and values, that we have in relation to a making a judgment.
Ensuring we consider the right options as part of the way we make our choice between alternatives.
And finally (for decisions) considering the practicability of delivery of what we have chosen.

How do you differentiate judgment, intelligence and decision-making, and how are they connected?

Intelligence is one of the qualities that contribute to judgment. Others include acumen, common sense, discernment, emotional intelligence, insight, perceptiveness, rationality, self-awareness and wisdom.

Judgment covers both decision-making and forming opinions.

What makes judgment different in times of crisis?

It depends on what the crisis is!

For example, if it is a time of stress, the danger is that we let our emotions dominate our choices and we make worse judgments as a result.

If we need to make quick choices, we need to consider the risks of speed.

If it is something unexpected, we need to make sure we are considering all the alternatives, not just the possibilities that come quickly to mind.

In any case we need to look for specific actions relevant to the cause of the crisis.

Many people assume that judgment improves with experience. Do you agree?

Usually, judgment does improve with experience. We gain knowledge and experience all through our lives. These should help us to understand more about how to consider the choices we have to make. We also get feedback on what we do, which again should help us to learn.

But judgment will not improve if, as well as becoming more experienced or knowledgeable, we become overconfident or complacent.

What is your opinion on the topic of decision-making speed?

The authorities in the field differ a great deal on whether it’s better to make decisions quickly or slowly. Before considering whether to go fast or slow down, the questions to ask ourselves are first: Can it wait? And then: Does it matter?

– If it can’t wait and it matters, there isn’t a choice to be made, say with a personal medical emergency – do it now.

– If it can wait and doesn’t matter (getting the latest phone model when your current one is just fine), take it at whatever speed you believe is best in the circumstances.

– If it can wait, and it matters, the choice about speed is above all an assessment, and then management, of risk:

The more it matters, the greater the risk of speed.
If the circumstances are unfamiliar, then you are taking a risk by moving fast – the more unfamiliar, the greater the risk of speed.
The worse your record on making judgements at speed, the greater the risk of making this one quickly.

Spending more time by getting missing facts or consulting more widely generally lowers the risk. Delay through procrastination probably, but not inevitably, increases it.

But as ever with judgement, context is everything and the relative risks of speed against delay have to be weighed up for the particular circumstances.

What are your main thoughts on how intuition shapes effective judgment?

With speed, authorities in this field have many different views. Before considering whether to use intuition, again, as with speed, there are two questions to ask ourselves: First, is evidence required for what I’m about to do? And second: Does it matter?

– If evidence has to be provided (for colleagues, the regulators or the law), intuition or gut feel cannot be enough of a basis for judgement. ‘I feel it’s right’ doesn’t allow for scrutiny or provide an adequate basis for explanation.

– If evidence does not have to be provided

and the outcome doesn’t matter (‘I’ve decided to go for silver rather than black for the new car’), you can do what you feel is best and choose the combination of analysis and intuition that is appropriate in these circumstances.
and the outcome matters, using intuition is about the assessment, and then management, of risk:
The more it matters, the greater the risk of using intuition
The less familiar the circumstances, the greater the risk of using intuition.
The worse your record on making judgements using intuition, the greater the risk of doing so.

But as with so much in the field of judgement, context is everything. The relative risks of using intuition against not doing so have to be weighed up in the particular circumstances.

What role do emotions play in how we judge situations, and how can we prevent them from clouding our judgment while still using them as valuable input?

The main way we can prevent emotions from clouding our judgment is to become aware of them and to take account of them when exercising our judgment.

For example, fear may make us excessively cautious and anger make us act badly.

In the case of fear, we may want to consult those we trust to get their perspectives. In the case of anger, we may need to wait until it has subsided before taking action.

From your experience, what judgment errors do leaders most often make, and which ones are most detrimental to sound decision-making?

Not understanding the limitations of their existing knowledge and experience.

Not applying what they know to the circumstances of a particular choice.

Not understanding who and what they can trust.

Not being aware of the circumstances in which they have to make a particular choice.

Not taking account of their feelings and beliefs (including their biases) when making a choice.

Not making a choice between alternatives in the right way.

Not taking account of the realities of an ability to deliver what they have decided.

In your view, is overconfidence a curse or a blessing for leaders?

It is definitely a curse for good judgment!

Someone who is overconfident may well not understand that they know less than they think they know, may not take in what is going on, may not listen to advice, may ignore possible alternative courses of action, may not acknowledge risk and may not understand that something cannot be carried through.

In your view, is overconfidence a curse or a blessing for leaders?

It is definitely a curse for good judgment!

Leaders often struggle to retrace their steps. And recognizing one’s own errors in judgment is not always easy. How can one learn from poor decisions and improve at recognizing and managing cognitive biases?

Above all a leader needs to be open-minded enough to accept that he or she cannot get everything right and that life is a continuous learning process.

One way is to make sure a leader gets feedback from people who will tell them the truth, not what they want to hear.

Another is to have regular reviews on performance and progress. It’s important to learn from things that go well, not just when something has gone wrong.

In relation to judgement, bias is one of the ways feelings and beliefs influence making a choice or forming an opinion regardless of the context and the facts.

Bias issues, as with judgement as a whole, are context-specific – we have to consider the relevant biases in relation to specific decisions.

Some biases, such as groupthink, are regularly mentioned in discussions in the world of work.

Other biases may be just as common but are not mentioned, usually because we are not aware of them.

Some of the ways of addressing these biases are:

Identify your biases, and those of the people you work and deal with, so you can manage them, for example by discussing them in appraisals or performance reviews or acknowledging them openly in discussion.
Use training or coaching to become more aware of them and other aspects of your feelings and beliefs.
Identify the feelings and beliefs in the room in making collective judgements, especially biases such as groupthink. Take specific steps to counter them where they could jeopardise good judgement, for example through a devil’s advocate technique.
In providing a safe space for dissent on feelings and beliefs, ensure that status does not inhibit free expression.
Where necessary, use rules or provide procedures to counter the risks of bias, to ensure that relevant options are considered and to increase personal accountability.
Even if you believe you are aware of your own biases, ensure that you get feedback on them from those you trust and who are not afraid to tell you the truth.
If you consider yourself unbiased, check, if the facts and circumstances change, whether your views reflect that.
Look for motivated reasoning in people and information presented to you, separating commitment from bias.

What distinguishes individual judgment from collective judgment, and in what ways can teams enhance their decision-making?

Most groups are set up as part of normal business to get the benefit of collective judgement rather than relying on a single individual. It’s accepted that they fulfil a number of functions, one of which is to recognise that a single individual doesn’t necessarily have the skills, personal qualities and experience required for the choice involved. The group, collectively, is there to remedy those limitations.

Whether it will do so depends on the size, composition and dynamics of the group, how it is set up and who is asked to serve.

There seems to be plenty of evidence that there is a real danger of groupthink in organisations and that groups need to consider how to avoid it.

There are well-established ways of doing so, including encouraging diversity of participants and views or review of the group by outsiders (for example through board appraisal) or internally through review sessions. There can also be encouragement of diverse views in the way the group operates.

But above all it is the chair who will be most influential in avoiding – or failing to avoid – groupthink. The chair is likely to be influential in who is chosen to be members of the group and the way in which the expression of diverse views is or is not encouraged.

A good Chair will bring out the best in the group and make sure that it is not just those with the loudest voices who are heard.

How to build a strong decision-making environment when dealing with risk and uncertainty?

There are plenty of well-established ways for organisations to manage their risks.

Judgement involves assessing risk, not avoiding it.

It involves acting quickly, even immediately, where speed is of the essence.

It only involves caution when caution is justified, such as when there is the need (and time) to get more information, including about whether what is being considered is feasible.

What can leaders do to build an organizational culture that encourages sound judgment at every level?

Make clear that judgment is valued by hiring people with good judgment, by using appraisal as an opportunity to identify how people can improve their judgment and by promoting those who show good judgment.

What aspects of human judgment do you see as beyond AI’s ability to replicate?

By recognising that AI can be a valuable tool in an increasing number of applications and that it will help those leading and managing organisations to exercise better judgment by giving them access to more sophisticated raw material for the choices they have to make.

AI can do many wonderful things, but it cannot exercise judgment. It does not have a number of attributes that distinguish a human being from a machine, such as conscience and morality.

But critically, although in many circumstances, AI can help a human being to make a better judgment, it cannot be programmed to achieve an outcome that is unique to a set of circumstances.

What final adviceS would you give to make better judgments?

Be aware that judgment is a process and that understanding that can stack the cards in your favour in making better choices, not only in your working life, but also in your private life
Identify your strengths and weaknesses, including your biases, to decide how to use your strengths and mitigate your weaknesses
Incorporate risk analysis at all stages of the judgement process
Look for judgement as a quality you are seeking in colleagues. Make it an explicit part of selection, appraisal and performance reviews and a criterion for promotion, giving clear guidance on what it means
Fill the gaps and issues in your own judgement through the means relevant to the gap, whether it’s getting more experience, learning from colleagues, training, mentoring or coaching.
Foster an environment where feedback is encouraged, diversity of views is accepted, dissent is seen as safe, assumptions can be challenged, and feedback is seen to be followed up and used.
When setting up teams, bring people in who provide the diversity relevant to the subject and the group, and who share your values but not your biases.
Where possible, harness the power of AI, especially in choice and delivery.

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